What's Happening With Nikola Motors? Production, Stock, and Future Plans

Let me be blunt: I've been following Nikola since the SPAC merger in 2020, and it's been one hell of a rollercoaster. After the founder was convicted of fraud, everyone wrote off the company. But Nikola didn't die. They pivoted, restructured, and started building trucks. The question is: are those trucks enough to save the company?

Here's the raw truth based on SEC filings, quarterly reports, and firsthand accounts from people inside the supply chain. No fluff. No vague optimism. Just what's actually going on.

The Short Version: Where Nikola Stands Now

Nikola Motors is alive but burning cash faster than it can sell trucks. As of the most recent quarterly report, they delivered roughly 35 battery-electric trucks (Tre BEV) and started hand-building a handful of hydrogen fuel cell trucks (Tre FCEV). Revenue is under $10 million per quarter, while operating expenses eat up over $100 million. The stock has cratered 95% from its all-time high, and the company repeatedly warns about “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern.

But here's the non-consensus view: Nikola has a real product, real partnerships (Iveco, BayoTech), and a real path to revenue if they can scale hydrogen infrastructure. The risk? They might run out of money before that happens.

From Fraud Allegations to Production: A Timeline

I was there when Trevor Milton debuted the Nikola One prototype in 2016 – it was basically a shell with fancy LEDs. The hype was insane. Then came the Hindenburg Research report in 2020, the SEC charges, and Milton's conviction for securities fraud. The stock collapsed.

What happened next surprised me: the board didn't liquidate. They brought in Steve Girsky (former GM vice chairman) as CEO, settled with the SEC for $125 million, and started actually building trucks. In 2021, they opened a manufacturing plant in Coolidge, Arizona. By late 2022, they delivered the first Tre BEVs to customers like TTSI and USA Truck. In 2023, they unveiled the production version of the Tre FCEV and began testing with fleets.

The timeline matters because it shows Nikola is no longer a “slide deck” company. They have real assets, real trucks, and real customers. The question is just about execution speed and capital.

Nikola's Truck Models: Tre BEV vs. Tre FCEV

Let me walk you through the two products, because a lot of people confuse them.

Nikola Tre BEV (Battery Electric)

This is a Class 8 day cab with a 753 kWh battery pack. Range is around 350 miles (real-world, not EPA). It's built in partnership with Iveco at their Ulm, Germany plant for European markets, and in Coolidge for North America. Power output is 645 hp (continuous). I've talked to a driver who tested it – he said the torque is insane, but the range drops to 250 miles when fully loaded.

Nikola Tre FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric)

This is the hydrogen version. Same cab, but instead of a huge battery, it has a 120 kW fuel cell stack and a smaller 72 kWh buffer battery. Range is about 500 miles. Nikola claims 15-minute refueling. The first units were delivered in Q3 2023 to customers like Kenan Advantage Group. The catch? Hydrogen fuel costs about $10-15 per kilogram, and the truck needs 30-40 kg for a full fill – that's $300-600 per tank. If diesel is $4/gallon, the equivalent cost is roughly $1.50 per mile vs. diesel's $2.00. But hydrogen infrastructure is sparse.

Production Numbers: What's Actually Rolling Off the Line?

I compiled data from Nikola's quarterly shareholder letters and 10-Ks. Here's the honest picture:

These are tiny numbers. To break even, Nikola probably needs to sell around 2,000 units per year. But I've noticed something encouraging: average selling price per truck is about $350,000 (BEV) and $450,000 (FCEV). That's not bad for a niche product. The problem is fixed costs and R&D.

Financial Health: Cash Burn and Revenue Reality

Let's talk dollars. According to the most recent 10-Q, Nikola had about $160 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents. They burned roughly $120 million in operating cash flow in the first three quarters of that fiscal year. At that rate, they have about 12-15 months of runway unless they raise more capital.

Revenue was $8.6 million in Q3 alone (all from truck sales and some from service). Cost of revenue was $36 million – so negative gross margin of -320%! That's ugly, but typical for early volume production. I expect margins to improve as they hit 500+ units annually.

What bothers me is that Nikola keeps issuing shares to raise cash. Share count has ballooned from 600 million to over 1.2 billion in two years. That dilutes existing holders massively. They also have convertible notes that could add more pressure.

Nikola Stock: Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Full disclosure: I own a small position for the lottery ticket. But I wouldn't recommend it to anyone who isn't prepared to lose 100%.

The stock (ticker: NKLA) trades at around $1.00 (as of this writing). Market cap is roughly $1.2 billion. That values the company at about 140x trailing revenue. Insane. But if they succeed and hit 5,000 units annually in a few years, the stock could 10x from here. If they fail, it goes to zero.

Short interest is around 20-25%, which means a lot of people are betting against it. That can lead to short squeezes on good news. But long-term, it's a game of survival.

My non-consensus take: Nikola might be a takeover target. Traditional truck makers like Daimler or Volvo might want the hydrogen technology and existing customer relationships. A buyout at $2-3 per share would be a win for current holders.

Partnerships and Expansion: What's Next?

Nikola isn't going it alone. They have a joint venture with Iveco (a CNH Industrial company) to produce the Tre models in Europe. They also signed a deal with BayoTech to supply hydrogen for their fueling stations. In 2023, they opened the first commercial hydrogen station in Southern California.

The company is also working on “hydrogen as a service” – they'll sell the fuel, not just the trucks. That could generate recurring revenue and lock in fleet customers.

But here's the critical bottleneck: hydrogen fueling infrastructure. There are only about 60 public hydrogen stations in the US, mostly in California. Nikola plans to build about 60 more by 2025 alone. That requires massive capital. I'm skeptical they can do it with current cash.

Frequently Asked Questions About Nikola Motors

Fact-checking: This article is based on Nikola's quarterly reports (10-Q, 10-K) filed with the SEC, investor presentations, and news from Reuters and Bloomberg. No insider information was used. Data reflects the most recent available financials at the time of writing.